Nasdaq 100 Outlook: Thanksgiving Seasonality and Volatility Trends

To understand how the Nasdaq 100 typically trades around Thanksgiving, I analysed daily returns for the three sessions leading into the holiday and the three that follow. With US markets closed on the Thursday, this covers Monday to Wednesday beforehand, and Friday through Tuesday afterwards. The aim is to identify which days show repeatable tendencies in direction, volatility and win rate — and which offer little in the way of a reliable seasonal edge.

View related analysis:

Nasdaq 100 Thanksgiving Seasonality Breakdown

Straight off the bat, we can see that the day before Thanksgiving tends to be bullish for the Nasdaq 100. The Wednesday prior shows an average return of 0.37% and a median return of 0.34%, indicating a robust pattern rather than a result skewed by a few outliers.

Wednesday also has a strong win rate of 67.4%, meaning it closes higher roughly two times out of three on Thanksgiving Eve. It has the second-largest bullish daily range, with an average move of 1.16% and a median of 1.28%. The stacked range chart at the bottom also shows that gains are skewed to the upside, making Wednesday the most reliable pattern in the dataset overall.

The Friday after Thanksgiving also has positive average and negative return, though not as prominent as the Tuesday ahead of it. The win rate is 51.1%, though stacked returns are skewed negatively. Also note that it is the least volatile day of the six analysed, likely because traders are taking the long weekend. This makes the data less reliable in my view.

Out of the six days analysed, the Tuesday before Thanksgiving has delivered an average return of –0.2%. However, the median return is slightly positive at 0.05%, indicating that a few deeper declines have pulled the average lower. ‘Stacked’ returns show a positive skey, yet the win rate is also mildly negative at 48.8%. Overall, there’s no consistent pattern on the Tuesday ahead of Thanksgiving.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - data source: Nasdaq, LSEG

Nasdaq 100: Daily Returns Analysis

With Wednesday (T-1) emerging as the strongest day in the Thanksgiving window, it’s worth examining its historical behaviour across the full sample.

The long-term average daily range sits around 1.2%, yet volatility on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving has only exceeded that level twice in the past 16 years, showing that pre-holiday volatility has been structurally lower since 2008. Even so, the daily range has hovered near 1% over the past three years.

Last year broke the streak, with the Nasdaq 100 closing lower on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving for the first time in eight years. It was also the most bearish T-1 close in 13 Thanksgiving periods. Despite that one-off decline, the broader bullish tendency remains intact and has been relatively robust in recent years.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - data source: Nasdaq, LSEG

Nasdaq 100 Futures Technical Analysis

The US tech sector fell for a third straight week — its first such run since March. That earlier sequence kicked off a 26% decline from the February high, with the index dropping in seven of the following nine weeks. I don’t expect a repeat of that magnitude this time, and my base case is that any deeper selloff is more likely a 2025 story. Still, the Nasdaq 100 has scope to slip towards the 2024 high (23,114.75) before meaningful support emerges.

The index held around its 20-week EMA into last week’s close, and a small bullish candle formed around the 24,158 high-volume node (HVN). Futures opened with a gap higher on Monday. Given the size of the recent drop and the upcoming four-day weekend, some bears will likely book profits, while seasonality may tempt a few bulls back in — as has often been the case over the past decade.

Into next week, we can reassess whether bears re-load for another leg lower.

Weekly and daily Nasdaq 100 futures charts showing the recent three-week decline, support at the 20-week EMA, a bullish reaction around the 24,158 HVN, and potential downside towards the 2024 high near 23,115. Chart analysis by Matt Simpson — data source: Nasdaq, TradingView.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - data source: Nasdaq, TradingView

View the full economic calendar

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.